Baseball Jeremiad

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A Curiously Intelligent Baseball blog

Copernican Links: Tuesday Edition

Fangraphs asks where the devil Jason Bay’s power is residing.  Jack Moore provides a rather depressing conclusion for Mets fans:

What we’re seeing with Bay seems to be one of the nastiest combinations of park effects, regression to the mean, aging, and simple poor luck that I can recall a power hitter encountering. It’s certainly possible that Bay has simply lost some of his pop, but right now the most likely scenario is that Bay is working through an extended slump. ZiPS projects him to add 19 more home runs before season’s end, as opposed to the 9 that his pace suggests. It’s too early to dismiss Jason Bay as a power hitter, even if he can’t replicate his awesome 2009.

It’s June; thus, it must be Cape Cod baseball time.

And That Happened is still a must read, each and every single day.

Rob Neyer dishes on the players’ opinions on umpires and replay.

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Late Night Links

More rookie madness from FanGraphs.

Jimmy Solomon: worst week ever?  Or not?

Rob Neyer goes to his mailbox.  Thankfully, he talks sense on the bogus perfect game/pine tar game analogies:

From the “Dear Rob” files …

Re: Galarraga — Has anyone brought up the Pine Tar game? It seems that set the precedent for the Commissioner’s Office to be able to change a mistake by the umpires. They nullified the final inning and replayed the end of the game months later. Selig could have done the same thing here … only nullify the 28th out and reinstate the perfecto.

T.W.
Walpole, Mass.
It’s not really the same thing. In the Case of the Sticky Tar, the Royals lodged a protest regarding the umpire’s interpretation of a rule. The American League office ruled in their favor, and you know the rest. But I don’t believe that league officials have ever, in the history of the major leagues, overruled an umpire’s judgment call, for the simple reason that no protest was, or can be, lodged.

They’re just different things. Or they always have been, anyway.

An explanation of how the Wally Backman-explosion video circulating on the internet came to be from Mets Today.

Jack Moore of FanGraphs sees trouble ahead for the good ship Johan.

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Copernican Links

That’s right Virginia, there is baseball outside of the Beltway today. 

Jack Moore over at FanGraphs examined Nationals Nyjer Morgan’s baserunning inadequacies.

On the other hand, Dave Cameron talked up baseball ethics, Bryce Harper and the Nats’ attention to both.

Wally Backman could manage my team any day of the week

Calcaterra observes that the Twins want some changes at Target Field.

Who would win in a fight?  Angelos or Valentine?  Is Valentine’s surname Ditka?

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Cleaning up the Reader

Some of the items we’re reading today at Baseball Jeremiad… 

Jason Stark reviews eight teams and asks whether their early performance is a reality or illusion. 

His take on the Mets: 

Mets (6-9, last place in NL East)

 Rating: Reality 

Twice in the last week, we’ve heard two scouts make a remark like this: “I think Washington is a much better club than the Mets.” 

From where we Rumblers and Grumblers sit, we wouldn’t go that far. At some point, you can take these predictions to Vegas: Jason Bay will hit a home run. And Carlos Beltran will get a hit. And Francisco Rodriguez will save a game. And a starter other than Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey will win a game. But is this a good enough, or deep enough, team to hang with the Braves, Phillies and Marlins? We’re not hearing anybody say that except the Mets themselves. 

“You know, baseball needs the Mets to be good,” one scout said. “Baseball is more fun when the Mets are good and that rivalry between them and the Phillies is cooking. But this just isn’t a real good team. If you look past Santana, and Pelfrey the way he’s pitched so far, you see where the Mets’ problems lie. They’ve got legitimate concerns in that rotation. I watched that bullpen six days, and they’ve got four guys on pace to pitch over 80 games. That says their starters just are not getting deep enough. And I don’t see that changing.” 

 Meanwhile, Stark reacted to DC Matt’s dis of Jorge Cantu: 

Yes he Cantu: How many hitters in baseball are more underrated than Marlins hit factory Jorge Cantu? He may not be Albert Pujols. But he’s the only player in the National League who has gotten a hit in every game this season. He has more extra-base hits (10) than singles (eight). He’s second in the league in RBIs. He’s hitting .429 with men in scoring position. And as we mentioned last week, the only NL hitters with more RBIs than Cantu since the 2009 All-Star break are Ryan Howard, Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp and Prince Fielder

Forbes Magazine explains why the Phillies have remained so good for the past three seasons: 

The Phillies have stars like Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, who came up through the team’s farm system and have been signed to long-term deals. This has left money free to patch holes with the occasional expensive free agent, such as newly acquired Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay, who signed for $60 million over three years. 

The results have been spectacular. The team won the World Series two years ago and made it back last year before losing to the Yankees in six games. This year the Phillies will try to win three National League pennants in a row, which would tie a record set during World War II by the Cardinals. “We had a plan. We wanted to get good in a way that we could stay good,” says team President David Montgomery. 

Former Met and Phillie Bruce Chen rides again, this time in Royals Blue. 

I had a running joke with a friend of mine from Jersey that certain Yankee pitchers broke into cold sweats and possibly soiled themselves whenever they heard Joe Torre’s voice.  The joke, of course, was that Torre had a penchant for destroying Quadruple-A pitchers by pitching them multiple innings multiple days in a row.*  Thus, we laughed like hell when Torre became manager of the Dodgers and Scott Proctor found his way to LA.  All of this is an extended set-up for worrying that Jerry Manuel plans to have the same effect on Francisco Rodriguez

*I don’t know, empirically, whether or not this is true.  Was our perception reality?  Not too sure.   

Benjamin Hoffman of the “Bats Blog” of The New York Times investigates the autonomy of an at-bat

Last week, DC Matt and I picked up Barry Zito to make a spot-start for the Centristfielders.  He threw a gem.  Fangraphs’ Matt Klaassen wonders why.  His answer: might just lucky, he guesses. 

Joel Sherman of the New York Post makes some baseball jokes and observations in his blog.

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Baseball Musings

  • Adam Dunn could become only second player ever to have higher number of strikeouts than BA (currently 157 K and .163). First was M Reynolds. 5 years ago
  • At least the New York Times remembers the Expos... http://fb.me/BhzEslEO 6 years ago
  • MLB Network on Sabathia: "CC is one of the few pitchers in the league who is his own batting eye." 6 years ago
  • Sabathia vs. Halladay tonight: noted hitting hurler Sabathia is hitting .500 against Cy Young winners (okay, he's 1 for 2 against Johan) 6 years ago
  • RT @jaysonst: Now that Stephen Strasburg has pulled into town, the most important era in Nationals history has officially begun. http:// ... 6 years ago

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